Investigating hill sheep farmers and crofters' experiences of blackloss in the Highlands and Islands of Scotland.

Hill sheep farming is an important component of Scottish agriculture and comprises a significant land use in much of the Highlands and Islands. However it faces significant challenges due to the natural constraints of the landscape. Hill sheep farming uses hardy traditional breeds, such as the Scottish blackface and North Country Cheviot to graze extensive areas, where the sheep are not housed and tend to lamb on the open hill. Flocks are gathered several times a year for stock checks, husbandry, and health treatments. Between these handling events, stock will disappear and be unaccounted for. These unexplained losses are known as blackloss in the Highlands and Islands. Previously reported figures for annual lamb blackloss give an average of 18.6%. These losses are in addition to the known losses of lambs and represent a significant welfare and sustainability issue. High parasite burdens, predation, a photosensitisation disease known as plochteach or yellowses, and poor nutrition are often given as presumed reasons for blackloss. A questionnaire was developed to assess the experiences, impacts and understanding flock managers have of blackloss. Typology analysis using partitioning around medoids was used to cluster respondents into three distinct groups: 1- very large extensive farms and Sheep Stock Clubs, 2- medium sized farms, and 3- small-scale crofts. The responses of these groups were subsequently analysed to see if their experiences and perceptions of blackloss differed with relation to lamb health challenges and predation impacts. The groups reported similar health challenges, apart from Group 1 which had a significantly higher plochteach challenge. In terms of predators, Group 1 also perceived white-tailed eagles (Haliaeetus albicilla) as a much higher threat to their lambs than the other groups. It was observed that many of the respondents believed blackloss is inevitable and that predators pose a large threat to lambs. However, most agreed that reducing these losses is important and that understanding the causes would enable them to do so.

Integrating advances in population and evolutionary ecology with conservation strategy through long-term studies of red-billed choughs.

Conceptual and methodological advances in population and evolutionary ecology are often pursued with the ambition that they will help identify demographic, ecological and genetic constraints on population growth rate (λ), and ultimately facilitate evidence-based conservation. However, such advances are often decoupled from conservation practice, impeding translation of scientific understanding into effective conservation and of conservation-motivated research into wider conceptual understanding. We summarise key outcomes from long-term studies of a red-billed chough Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax population of conservation concern, where we proactively aimed to achieve the dual and interacting objectives of advancing population and evolutionary ecology and advancing effective conservation. Estimation of means, variances and covariances in key vital rates from individual-based demographic data identified temporal and spatial variation in subadult survival as key constraints on λ, and simultaneously provided new insights into how vital rates can vary as functions of demographic structure, natal conditions and parental life history. Targeted analyses showed that first-year survival increased with prey abundance, implying that food limitation may constrain λ. First-year survival then decreased dramatically, threatening population viability and prompting emergency supplementary feeding interventions. Detailed evaluations suggested that the interventions successfully increased first-year survival in some years and additionally increased adult survival and successful reproduction, thereby feeding back to inform intervention refinements and understanding of complex ecological constraints on λ. Genetic analyses revealed novel evidence of expression of a lethal recessive allele, and demonstrated how critically small effective population size can arise, thereby increasing inbreeding and loss of genetic variation. Population viability analyses parameterised with all available demographic and genetic data showed how ecological and genetic constraints can interact to limit population viability, and identified ecological management as of primacy over genetic management to ensure short-term persistence of the focal population. This case study demonstrates a full iteration through the sequence of primary science, evidence-based intervention, quantitative evaluation and feedback that is advocated in conservation science but still infrequently achieved. It thereby illustrates how pure science advances informed conservation actions to ensure the (short-term) stability of the target population, and how conservation-motivated analyses fed back to advance fundamental understanding of population processes.

Estimating demographic contributions to effective population size in an age-structured wild population experiencing environmental and demographic stochasticity.

A population's effective size (Ne ) is a key parameter that shapes rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity, thereby influencing evolutionary processes and population viability. However, estimating Ne , and identifying key demographic mechanisms that underlie the Ne to census population size (N) ratio, remains challenging, especially for small populations with overlapping generations and substantial environmental and demographic stochasticity and hence dynamic age-structure. A sophisticated demographic method of estimating Ne /N, which uses Fisher's reproductive value to account for dynamic age-structure, has been formulated. However, this method requires detailed individual- and population-level data on sex- and age-specific reproduction and survival, and has rarely been implemented. Here, we use the reproductive value method and detailed demographic data to estimate Ne /N for a small and apparently isolated red-billed chough (Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax) population of high conservation concern. We additionally calculated two single-sample molecular genetic estimates of Ne to corroborate the demographic estimate and examine evidence for unobserved immigration and gene flow. The demographic estimate of Ne /N was 0.21, reflecting a high total demographic variance (σ2dg) of 0.71. Females and males made similar overall contributions to σ2dg. However, contributions varied among sex-age classes, with greater contributions from 3 year-old females than males, but greater contributions from ≥5 year-old males than females. The demographic estimate of Ne was ~30, suggesting that rates of increase of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation per generation will be relatively high. Molecular genetic estimates of Ne computed from linkage disequilibrium and approximate Bayesian computation were approximately 50 and 30, respectively, providing no evidence of substantial unobserved immigration which could bias demographic estimates of Ne . Our analyses identify key sex-age classes contributing to demographic variance and thus decreasing Ne /N in a small age-structured population inhabiting a variable environment. They thereby demonstrate how assessments of Ne can incorporate stochastic sex- and age-specific demography and elucidate key demographic processes affecting a population's evolutionary trajectory and viability. Furthermore, our analyses show that Ne for the focal chough population is critically small, implying that management to re-establish genetic connectivity may be required to ensure population viability.

Evidence of the phenotypic expression of a lethal recessive allele under inbreeding in a wild population of conservation concern.

Deleterious recessive alleles that are masked in outbred populations are predicted to be expressed in small, inbred populations, reducing both individual fitness and population viability. However, there are few definitive examples of phenotypic expression of lethal recessive alleles under inbreeding conditions in wild populations. Studies that demonstrate the action of such alleles, and infer their distribution and dynamics, are required to understand their potential impact on population viability and inform management responses. The Scottish population of red-billed choughs (Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax), which currently totals <60 breeding pairs and is of major conservation concern, has recently been affected by lethal blindness in nestlings. We used family data to show that the pattern of occurrence of blindness within and across affected families that produced blind nestlings was exactly 0·25, matching that expected given a single-locus autosomal lethal recessive allele. Furthermore, the observed distribution of blind nestlings within affected families did not differ from that expected given Mendelian inheritance of such an allele. Relatedness estimates showed that individuals from affected families were not more closely related to each other than they were to individuals from unaffected families that did not produce blind nestlings. Blind individuals tended to be less heterozygous than non-blind individuals, as expected if blindness was caused by the expression of a recessive allele under inbreeding. However, there was no difference in the variance in heterozygosity estimates, suggesting that some blind individuals were relatively outbred. These results suggest carriers of the blindness allele may be widely distributed across contemporary families rather than restricted to a single family lineage, implying that the allele has persisted across multiple generations. Blindness occurred at low frequency (affecting 1·6% of observed nestlings since 1981). However, affected families had larger initial brood sizes than unaffected families. Such high fecundity of carriers of a lethal recessive allele might reflect overdominance, potentially reducing purging and increasing allele persistence probability. We thereby demonstrate the phenotypic expression of a lethal recessive allele in a wild population of conservation concern, and provide a general framework for inferring allele distribution and persistence and informing management responses.

Parent age, lifespan and offspring survival: structured variation in life history in a wild population.

1. Understanding the degree to which reproductive success varies with an individual's age and lifespan, and the degree to which population-level variation mirrors individual-level variation, is central to understanding life-history evolution and the dynamics of age-structured populations. We quantified variation in the survival probability of offspring, one key component of reproductive success and fitness, in relation to parent age and lifespan in a wild population of red-billed choughs (Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax). 2. On average across the study population, the first-year survival probability of offspring decreased with increasing parent age and lifespan; offspring of old parents were less likely to survive than offspring of young parents, and offspring of long-lived parents were less likely to survive than offspring of short-lived parents. 3. However, survival did not vary with parent age across offspring produced by groups of parents that ultimately had similar lifespans. 4. Rather, across offspring produced by young parents, offspring survival decreased with increasing parent lifespan; parents that ultimately had long lifespans produced offspring that survived poorly, even when these parents were breeding at young ages. 5. The average decrease in offspring survival with increasing parent age observed across the population therefore reflected the gradual disappearance of short-lived parents that produced offspring that survived well, not age-specific variation in offspring survival within individual parents. 6. The negative correlation between offspring survival and maternal lifespan was strongest when environmental conditions meant that offspring survival was low across the population. 7. These data suggest an environment-dependent trade-off between parent and offspring survival, show consistent individual variation in the resolution of this trade-off that is set early in a parent's life, and demonstrate that such structured life-history variation can generate spurious evidence of senescence in key fitness components when measured across a population.